function results = cadf(y,x,p,l) % PURPOSE: compute augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic for residuals % from a cointegrating regression, allowing for deterministic % polynomial trends % ------------------------------------------------------------ % USAGE: results = cadf(y,x,p,nlag) % where: y = dependent variable time-series vector % x = explanatory variables matrix % p = order of time polynomial in the null-hypothesis % p = -1, no deterministic part % p = 0, for constant term % p = 1, for constant plus time-trend % p > 1, for higher order polynomial % nlag = # of lagged changes of the residuals to include in regression % ------------------------------------------------------------ % RETURNS: results structure % results.meth = 'cadf' % results.alpha = autoregressive parameter estimate % results.adf = ADF t-statistic % results.crit = (6 x 1) vector of critical values % [1% 5% 10% 90% 95% 99%] quintiles % results.nvar = cols(x) % results.nlag = nlag %--------------------------------------------------- % SEE ALSO: prt_coint() %--------------------------------------------------- % References: Said and Dickey (1984) 'Testing for Unit Roots in % Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order', % Biometrika, Volume 71, pp. 599-607. % written by: % James P. LeSage, Dept of Economics % University of Toledo % 2801 W. Bancroft St, % Toledo, OH 43606 % jlesage@spatial-econometrics.com % Modeled after a similar Gauss routine by % Sam Ouliaris, in a package called COINT % error checking if (p < -1); error('p cannot be < -1 in cadf'); end; nobs = rows(x); if (nobs - (2*l) + 1 < 1); error('nlags is too large in cadf; negative degrees of freedom'); end; y = detrend(y,p); x = detrend(x,p); b = inv(x'*x)*x'*y; r = y - x*b; dep = tdiff(r,1); dep = trimr(dep,1,0); k = 0 ; z = trimr(lag(r,1),1,0) ; k = k + 1 ; while (k <= l) z = [z lag(dep,k)]; k = k + 1 ; end; z = trimr(z,l,0) ; dep = trimr(dep,l,0) ; beta = detrend(z,0)\detrend(dep,0) ; % res = dep - z*beta ; % BUG fix suggested by % Nick Firoozye % Sanford C. Bernstein, Inc % 767 Fifth Avenue, #21-49 % New York, NY 10153 res = detrend(dep,0)- detrend(z,0)*beta; so = (res'*res)/(rows(dep)-cols(z)); var_cov = so*inv(z'*z) ; results.alpha = beta(1,1); results.adf = beta(1,1)/sqrt(var_cov(1,1)); results.crit = rztcrit(nobs,cols(x),p); results.nlag = l; results.nvar = cols(x); results.meth = 'cadf';