function results = ols_g(y,x,ndraw,nomit,prior,start) % PURPOSE: MCMC estimates for the Bayesian heteroscedastic linear model % y = X B + E, E = N(0,sige*V), % V = diag(v1,v2,...vn), r/vi = ID chi(r)/r, r = Gamma(m,k) % B = N(c,T), sige = gamma(nu,d0) %--------------------------------------------------- % USAGE: results = ols_g(y,x,ndraw,nomit,prior,start) % where: y = dependent variable vector % x = independent variables matrix of rank(k) % ndraw = # of draws % nomit = # of initial draws omitted for burn-in % prior = a structure for prior information input % prior.beta, prior means for beta, c above (default diffuse) % priov.bcov, prior beta covariance , T above (default diffuse) % prior.rval, r prior hyperparameter, default=4 % prior.m, informative Gamma(m,k) prior on r % prior.k, informative Gamma(m,k) prior on r % prior.nu, informative Gamma(nu,d0) prior on sige % prior.d0 informative Gamma(nu,d0) prior on sige % default for above: nu=0,d0=0 (diffuse prior) % start = (optional) structure containing starting values: % defaults: OLS beta,sige, V= ones(n,1) % start.b = beta starting values (nvar x 1) % start.sig = sige starting value (scalar) % start.V = V starting values (n x 1) % --------------------------------------------------- % RETURNS: a structure: % results.meth = 'ols_g' % results.bdraw = bhat draws (ndraw-nomit x nvar) % results.vmean = mean of vi draws (nobs x 1) % results.sdraw = sige draws (ndraw-nomit x 1) % results.yhat = mean of draws from posterior for y-predicted % results.rdraw = r-value draws (ndraw-nomit x 1), if Gamma(m,k) prior % results.pmean = b prior means (prior.beta from input) % results.pstd = b prior std deviation, sqrt(prior.bcov) % results.m = prior m-value for r hyperparameter (if input) % results.k = prior k-value for r hyperparameter (if input) % results.r = value of hyperparameter r (if input) % results.nu = prior nu-value for sige prior % results.d0 = prior d0-value for sige prior % results.nobs = # of observations % results.nvar = # of variables % results.ndraw = # of draws % results.nomit = # of initial draws omitted % results.y = actual observations % results.x = x-matrix % results.time = time taken for sampling % results.pflag = 'plevel' (default) % or 'tstat' for bogus t-statistics % -------------------------------------------------- % NOTE: use either improper prior.rval % or informative Gamma prior.m, prior.k, not both of them %--------------------------------------------------- % SEE ALSO: coda, gmoment, prt_gibbs(results) %--------------------------------------------------- % REFERENCES: Geweke (1993) 'Bayesian Treatment of the % Independent Student-$t$ Linear Model', Journal of Applied % Econometrics, 8, s19-s40. % ---------------------------------------------------- % written by: % James P. LeSage, Dept of Economics % University of Toledo % 2801 W. Bancroft St, % Toledo, OH 43606 % jlesage@spatial-econometrics.com [n k] = size(x); if nargin > 4 % error checking on input if ~isstruct(prior) error('ols_g: must supply the prior as a structure variable'); end; end; if nargin == 6 % user-supplied starting values if ~isstruct(start) error('ols_g: must supply starting values in a structure'); end; b0 = start.b; sige = start.sig; V = start.V; end; if nargin == 5 % ols starting values b0 = (x'*x)\(x'*y); % Find ols values as initial starting values sige = (y-x*b0)'*(y-x*b0)/(n-k); V = ones(n,1); in = ones(n,1); % initial value for V end; if nargin == 4 % default values b0 = (x'*x)\(x'*y); % Find ols values as initial starting values sige = (y-x*b0)'*(y-x*b0)/(n-k); V = ones(n,1); in = ones(n,1); % initial value for V mm = 0; rval = 4; % rval = 4 is default nu = 0; d0 = 0; % default to a diffuse prior on sige T = eye(k)*1e+12; c = zeros(k,1); end; if nargin < 4 error('Wrong # of arguments to ols_g'); end; if nargin > 4 fields = fieldnames(prior); nf = length(fields); mm = 0; rval = 4; % rval = 4 is default nu = 0; d0 = 0; % default to a diffuse prior on sige c = zeros(k,1); T = eye(k)*1e+12; for i=1:nf if strcmp(fields{i},'rval') rval = prior.rval; elseif strcmp(fields{i},'m') mm = prior.m; kk = prior.k; rval = gamm_rnd(1,1,mm,kk); % initial value for rval elseif strcmp(fields{i},'nu') nu = prior.nu; elseif strcmp(fields{i},'d0') d0 = prior.d0; elseif strcmp(fields{i},'beta'); c = prior.beta; elseif strcmp(fields{i},'bcov'); T = prior.bcov; end; end; end; [checkk,junk] = size(c); if checkk ~= k error('ols_g: prior means are wrong'); elseif junk ~= 1 error('ols_g: prior means are wrong'); end; [checkk junk] = size(T); if checkk ~= k error('ols_g: prior bcov is wrong'); elseif junk ~= k error('ols_g: prior bcov is wrong'); end; Q = inv(T); Qpc = Q*c; bsave = zeros(ndraw-nomit,k); % allocate storage for results ssave = zeros(ndraw-nomit,1); rsave = zeros(ndraw-nomit,1); vmean = zeros(n,1); yhat = zeros(n,1); hwait = waitbar(0,'MCMC sampling ...'); t0 = clock; for i=1:ndraw; % Start the sampling ystar = matmul(sqrt(V),y); xstar = matmul(x,sqrt(V)); xpxi = inv(xstar'*xstar + sige*Q); xpy = (xstar'*ystar + sige*Qpc); % update b b = xpxi*xpy; a = chol(xpxi); b = sqrt(sige)*a'*randn(k,1) + b; % update sige nu1 = n + nu; e = ystar - xstar*b; d1 = d0 + e'*e; chi = chis_rnd(1,nu1); t2 = chi/d1; sige = 1/t2; % update vi e = y - x*b; chiv = chis_rnd(n,rval+1); vi = ((e.*e./sige) + in*rval)./chiv; V = in./vi; % update rval if mm ~= 0 rval = gamm_rnd(1,1,mm,kk); end; if i > nomit % if we are past burn-in, save the draws bsave(i-nomit,:) = b'; ssave(i-nomit,1) = sige; yhat = yhat + randn(n,1).*sqrt(sige*vi) + x*b; vmean = vmean + vi; if mm~= 0 rsave(i-nomit,1) = rval; end; end; waitbar(i/ndraw); end; % End the sampling gtime = etime(clock,t0); close(hwait); vmean = vmean/(ndraw-nomit); yhat = yhat/(ndraw-nomit); % return results results.meth = 'ols_g'; results.bdraw = bsave; results.pmean = c; results.pstd = sqrt(diag(T)); results.vmean = vmean; results.sdraw = ssave; results.yhat = yhat; if mm~= 0 results.rdraw = rsave; results.m = mm; results.k = kk; else results.r = rval; results.rdraw = rsave; end; results.nobs = n; results.nvar = k; results.y = y; results.x = x; results.nu = nu; results.d0 = d0; results.time = gtime; results.ndraw = ndraw; results.nomit = nomit; results.pflag = 'plevel';